Hex-tacular

Last night brought the draw for the fourth round of Concacaf qualifying -- known to its friends as The Hex -- for the 2014 World Cup in Brazil.

Matches don't start until February, but in a brazen bit of stealing from myself, here's my knee-jerk, completely speculative projection on how the last round of qualifying will go.

@ Honduras: MLS players will be short on match fitness in early February, so Klinsmann had damn well better hold Camp Toaster Strudel. The US nicks a goal but concedes late and it finishes 1-1.

vs. Costa Rica: As suggested by SBI, Salt Lake City is almost ideal for this match -- friendly crowd, at altitude and should still be fairly cool in late March. The US gets pushed hard by the Ticos but wins 2-1.

@ Mexico: Think El Tri and its fans will be up for this one? Jermaine Jones gets sent off in the first half and Mexico wins 2-0. The more reactionary US fans express Great Concern on message boards.

@ Jamaica: Our friends the Reggae Boyz will host Mexico three days prior, what with El Tri running off to the Confederations Cup (which we've all established no one cares about, right?). Odds are Jamaica will still be stinging after a loss and in no mood to party. Hopefully Klinsmann remembers to pack a few extra wide players, just in case. It finishes 1-1 and BigSoccer is inundated by hotlinked images of panic buttons.

vs. Panama: Reactionaries will declare this game a must-win; realists will remind the reactionaries that every home game in the Hex is a must-win. Even with Blas Perez leading the line, Panama at home is about as close to a get-well game there as is at this point. The US wins 3-1 and goes into the second half of the Hex with eight points, roughly halfway to Brazil.

vs. Honduras: For all the talent Honduras has, it's only beaten the US twice in the MLS Era -- the DC Debacle in 2001 and a friendly after the 2010 Camp Cupcake -- and three times overall. So why does this game scream "trap?" Maybe the intensity of three qualifiers in 11 days is a lot to ask, especially of guys coming off a long European season. (Then again, Mexico has to go to Jamaica and Panama and host Costa Rica in the space of a week before the Confederations Cup, so who knows what that will do to their heads, let alone their bodies.) US 1-1 Honduras and a summer full of Squeaky Bum Time awaits.

@ Costa Rica: If any Concacaf team has the US's number, it's Costa Rica, not Mexico. The US is winless in its last five against the Ticos (the earlier projection notwithstanding) and hasn't left Costa Rica with so much as a point since 1992. Things go poorly, Costa Rica wins 3-0 and "Klinsmann out" becomes more than just the US coach's sign-off when he fills in for Ryan Seacrest.

vs. Mexico: One of the biggest selling points of the Klinsmann era is that his teams get results when they absolutely have to have them. These last three games will put that assertion to its stiffest test yet. Of course this one takes place at Crew Stadium. Chicarito scores early but the US rallies, winning 2-1 and keeping the Columbus mystique alive.

vs. Jamaica: Rough as the Hex draw was to the US, it could've done far worse than playing Jamaica and Panama in the final week. This one seems like a good fit for Kansas City, especially if the weather turns cold. The US grinds out another 1-0 home win over Jamaica and in all likelihood secures a place at the World Cup.

@ Panama: All three US visits to Panama City have been fruitful, yielding two wins and a draw. Unless the US needs this result to qualify (and it shouldn't), expect to see the backups and anyone urgently needing to be cap-tied. The US wins 2-1 as Eddie Johnson nods in two goals and begins his campaign to go to a second World Cup.

Mexico 7W-2D-1L 20 GF 6 GA 23 points
Costa Rica 6-2-2 17 GF 9 GA 20 points
USA 5-3-2 13 GF 13 GA 18 points
Honduras 1-6-3 10 GF 13 GA 10 points (loses qualifying playoff to Oceania winner New Zealand)
Jamaica 1-3-6 5 GF 13 GA 6 points
Panama 1-2-7 6 GF 17 GA 5 points

This is how you do a political ad

Courtesy of Steve Martin and Joss Whedon:

Going all-in with Klinsi

My blogging about US soccer has been scarce since coming back to the States. That's partly because classes and searching for a new job take up most of my time and partly because, let's face it, the two matches against Jamaica last month were hardly inspiring. Now, though, the US men go into their last two matches of the semifinal round of Concacaf World Cup qualifying with the specter of things going Very Wrong lurking not too far out of sight.

Let's set the scene: The US, Guatemala and Jamaica are level on seven points atop Group A, from which only two teams will advance. Jamaica is third on goal difference (+1) while the US and Guatemala are dead even (2-1-1, 6 goals for, 4 goals against, +2 difference). The US travels to Antigua & Barbuda on Friday before returning home to host Guatemala in Kansas City next Tuesday. Advancing to the next round of qualifying is still well within reach for the Yanks, but recent events have complicated matters and left some fans with a sinking feeling.

It's all coming back to me

During the five or so years I spent in the tropics, people would often ask me what I missed from home. Leaving aside the obvious answers of family, friends and Dorothy Lynch, I would sometimes give the snappy reply of "I miss being cold." I do hail from more northerly climes, after all, and my aversion to the outdoors and extra layers of fat and fur should put me in good stead for the winter.

What a stupid I am. The past few days have dispelled any lingering haze of sentiment about low temperatures. I took in my first high school football game since leaving Hawaii on Friday, traveling to my old stomping grounds of Kenesaw to see the local team take on Amherst. It was nice to take a look around the site of many of my earliest memories -- even if the early sunset didn't leave much to see -- as was the chance to spend a few hours at the home of a family friend and former next-door neighbor who is in his 24th and last year of coaching the KHS football team. What was less nice was the reminder of just how bitterly cold nights can get this time of year. Mid-30s and a steady breeze tends to drain the fun from most festive occasions.

No laughing matter

Just when Indonesian politics started to not seem so horrifying, some knucklehead had to go and open his big yapper.

Solo Mayor Joko Widodo was officially declared the winner on Friday of the race to be Jakarta's next governor, kicking incumbent Fauzi Bowo to the curb despite the latter's supporters openly and frequently playing up racial and religious fears. That Joko was able to win as a Jakarta outsider and with an ethnic Chinese Christian as his running mate briefly raised hopes that politics in Indonesia could be more about picking the best candidate than which one looks and prays like the most people -- the staid Economist called the win "a triumph for tolerance and civilised values."

Enter comedian-turned-lawmaker Dedi Gumelar. He says the plan to eliminate science and social studies from the national elementary school curriculum is a jim-dandy idea. His stance is odd in that on one hand he bemoans the current curriculum as being modeled after "the West" (whatever that means), yet on the other he suggests embracing the system of Indonesia's former colonial masters.

Dedi said Indonesia should go back to the education system adopted during Dutch colonial rule and shortly after independence, when elementary school students were only taught basic education.

“In kindergarten, learning how to count and read should be prohibited because that’s the time to play and know nature empirically,” Dedi said. “It is easy to teach children to be smart but we should teach children how to be right.”

The Ministry of Education and Culture on Thursday announced that science and social science will be taken out of the elementary school’s curriculum next year to provide children with less school time.

The ministry said that the new curriculum would emphasize basic mathematics, the Indonesian language, religious studies and patriotism.

So colonial Dutch education - science - social studies + religion + patriotism = profits? Or is that prophets?

Even coming from a PDI-P acolyte, this is bizarre. One of the most common refrains as Indonesia tries to assume what the chestier nationalists say is its rightful place on the world stage is the need to make the country more competitive. Demographic heft will only take a country so far, as India is learning rather swiftly, and a steady stream of mixed signals has foreign investors unsure what to make of Indonesia.

Improving infrastructure is high on the to-do list, of course. It has to be, what with it being cheaper to ship to Jakarta from Singapore than Padang and oranges from China being cheaper in Indonesia than those from Medan. Roads and ports are only one part of the story, though.

Still, infrastructure is but one element; technological readiness is another. Indonesia is not sourcing enough technological advances domestically, and is adding too little value to raw materials. While this is an issue in the short run, Indonesia can always adopt technological innovations from foreign companies through FDI. The Harvard Kennedy School Indonesia Program has found that Indonesia needs to integrate into global supply chains for the same reason, as such networks are often coordinated at each level by multinationals willing to share their efficient production methods in order to reduce costs. This is particularly the case with regard to technological capacity, which is required in all export sectors to develop efficient production methods and reduce costs in a highly competitive global market. For technological competitiveness, the WEF Global Competitiveness Report ranks Indonesia 91st out of 139 countries. Of all of the relevant rankings, this is the country’s worst result.

The third criterion mentioned above is human capital. The low levels of skills and training for workers in Indonesia constrains the production of competitive exports. Indonesia is ranked 66th for higher education and training, and although it has achieved much success in improving enrollment rates at every level of education, it has focused on quantity (fueled by an education-for-all policy) while many people believe overall quality is declining. A lack of investment in tertiary education means the qualifications that the economy needs — science and engineering programs in particular, which are also the most expensive to teach — are in short supply. This is at a time when China is producing 300,000 engineering graduates a year. [Emphasis mine -- ed.]

That's right: In a world where science, technology, engineering and mathematics are taking on ever-greater importance -- and in which Indonesia's leading research institute employs three support staff for every actual scientist -- this bunch of yutzes wants to handicap future generations while whipping more religion and patriotism on them. What's that, G.K. -- something about refuges and scoundrels? I'm sure it's just a coincidence.

Or is it? Sure, this could be another case of the authorities bumbling into a new program with no thought beforehand -- it would hardly be the first time -- but after all, isn't the definition of a gaffe when a politician utters some truth he isn't supposed to say? Looking back on the Dutch colonial era, the education system appeared to be by the elite and for the elite, with the local population divided by race and socioeconomic status while being kept to the margins. Now, who would benefit from an obsequious, oblivious populace that loves Allah, loves their country and doesn't ask too many questions? Certainly not Dedi and his fellow elites at the House of Representatives -- the same vampires who are trying to suck the life out from the only institution making headway in fighting corruption, the same institution that's jailed 40 current or former House members with still more in the hopper. Certainly not the same elites who keep demanding more pay and more perks as they do less and less legislating and fling blame at everyone but themselves when they're called out for their misdeeds.

But let's not get sidetracked. FSM knows political foofery will be around for quite some time yet. Eliminating science from elementary schools not only leaves millions of Indonesian children disadvantaged, it also sells science education short. At that age, science isn't about cramming arcane facts, figures and formulas into malleable little brains -- it's about instilling, as Bill Nye puts it, the passion, beauty and joy of science. It's about helping kids wonder about and question the world around them, so that even if they don't turn into the "physicists and mathematical geniuses" at whom Pak Dedi sniffs, they'll still have the ability and confidence to think for themselves the next time some doom-mongering politician or slimy official tries to lead them a merry dance.